A member of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee, Murtala Sagagi, has projected that the naira is likely to strengthen to ₦1,450 against the US dollar by the end of 2025. Speaking from the MPC’s meeting held in May, Sagagi described the naira’s recent performance as relatively stable, though still undervalued, and noted that coordinated efforts by both monetary and fiscal authorities have been reinforcing its value.
He explained that combined policies aimed at increasing dollar inflows and managing naira liquidity have underpinned the currency’s resilience. This view is shared by market analysts who observe that the official and black-market rates have converged around the ₦1,500 mark in recent weeks, reflecting growing confidence in the domestic currency.
Underlining this optimism, Sagagi pointed out that, despite volatile global oil prices—a major source of Nigeria’s forex earnings—the naira has retained considerable stability. At one point in July, it reached a four‑month high of ₦1,518 per dollar before slightly easing to approximately ₦1,532.
He also emphasised that international recognition from agencies such as JP Morgan and Fitch has bolstered investor sentiment. If sustained, this could shield the naira from external shocks and support sustained economic growth.
Another MPC member, Mustapha Akinkunmi, echoed these views, noting that reforms initiated in 2024—particularly monetary tightening and exchange‑rate policy adjustments—have improved predictability and helped ease inflationary pressures. However, he cautioned that risks remain and that continued vigilance is necessary.
Market watchers now expect the CBN to maintain its current benchmark interest rate of 27.5 percent at its next meeting, pending further evidence of inflation moderation and exchange-rate stability.
Overall, a healthy combination of sound policy coordination, improved global sentiment, and market reforms has positioned the naira for modest appreciation. While challenges persist, the outlook appears cautiously positive, with the possibility of a stronger currency and firmer economic footing by year’s end.
