Afrinvest West Africa Limited has warned that more than two years into President Bola Tinubu’s administration, Nigeria is yet to chart a clear path toward achieving its $1 trillion economy target by 2031.
The observation was contained in the firm’s 20th Nigerian Banking Sector Report titled, “ACT-BOLD: Beyond a Trillion-Dollar Economy,” unveiled in Lagos as part of Afrinvest’s 30th anniversary celebrations.
The firm explained that the target, set to be realised within eight years, is dependent on broad-based reforms across fiscal and monetary policy. However, it noted that recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics, based on rebased GDP figures, revealed that nearly half of the economy’s 2022 size of $478 billion had been eroded due to external shocks and internal disruptions. The report stated that while many reforms announced by the administration appear sound in principle, the absence of critical enablers to convert them into measurable results remains a major concern.
Afrinvest recalled that in its 2023 Banking Sector Report, “Getting Nigeria to Work Again!”, it had warned that policy frameworks such as the PAC report were unlikely to achieve meaningful results without deep institutional reforms. The firm argued that two years later, the same weaknesses persist, undermining reform execution and limiting potential gains. It cited insecurity in agrarian communities restricting agricultural output, large-scale oil theft eroding vital export revenues, fiscal opacity affecting investor confidence, public sector extravagance diverting resources, and impunity weakening rule of law and accountability as factors slowing growth.
The report also compared Nigeria’s current macroeconomic trajectory with that of Argentina, noting that in less than two years under President Javier Milei, Argentina recorded faster GDP growth at 5.8 per cent, a stronger per capita GDP of $14,360, and significant disinflation momentum of 56 per cent from 127 per cent. In contrast, Nigeria posted -4.7 per cent, $835, and 22 per cent respectively on the same indices. The report said this comparison highlighted the role of consistent execution, institutional discipline, and decisive leadership in driving recovery.
Afrinvest recommended the adoption of an “ACT-BOLD” framework to reposition Nigeria’s economy through transparent and reform-driven governance. It emphasised accelerated growth in seven high-impact sectors as central to achieving the $1 trillion economy size by 2031. The report projected that Nigeria would require an average annual GDP growth rate of about 21.95 per cent and an exchange rate of N1,500 to the dollar to hit the target. While acknowledging the government’s optimism that the banking sector could drive the push, Afrinvest warned that without addressing structural challenges, the sector’s contribution might only deliver limited gains.
The report further assessed monetary policy, noting that the Central Bank of Nigeria under Governor Olayemi Cardoso raised benchmark interest rates by 875 basis points to 27.5 per cent between February and November 2024. This policy shift was aimed at stabilising inflation, strengthening the naira, and boosting investor confidence. On recapitalisation, it revealed that banks had collectively raised more than N2.5 trillion through rights issues, public offers, and private placements by mid-2025. It identified Access Corporation, Zenith Bank, Ecobank, and Lotus Bank as institutions that have already met the new capital thresholds ahead of the June 2026 deadline, while others continue to explore mergers and acquisitions.
Afrinvest noted that the financial services sector has remained resilient, growing by 15 per cent in real terms in the first quarter of 2025 and ranking among the top ten contributors to national GDP. At the report’s launch, Afrinvest Group Managing Director, Dr. Ike Chioke, reflected on the company’s 30-year journey marked by resilience, innovation, and leadership through Nigeria’s economic shifts, from the return to democracy in 1999 to the COVID-19 pandemic. He said, “The 20th edition is both a call to action and a framework for Nigeria’s growth.”
Afrinvest Chairman, Donald Lawson, represented by Professor Osita Ogbu of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, described the firm’s progress as a story of vision, courage, and adaptability. He noted that Afrinvest’s growth from a single office in Lagos to five major cities across Nigeria demonstrates its legacy of innovation and resilience.
