Former President of the Nigerian Bar Association, Olisa Agbakoba, has warned that Nigeria’s total public debt could rise to N200 trillion within the next four years if the Federal Government continues its current borrowing pattern without implementing major fiscal reforms.
Nigeria’s debt stock currently stands at N159.28 trillion, raising concerns among economists and policy analysts over the country’s fiscal sustainability and growing debt servicing obligations.
Speaking on the state of the economy, Agbakoba blamed the rising debt burden on weak revenue generation and poor fiscal management, arguing that the government has become excessively dependent on borrowing instead of strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation.
“If borrowing continues at this level, in the next four years, we will top N200 trillion. But if we tighten fiscal policy, then in the next four years, we could end at about N100 trillion, reducing the need to borrow,” he said.
Agbakoba stated that Nigeria’s debt challenge is being worsened by systemic leakages in revenue collection and remittance, particularly among state-owned enterprises and government ministries.
According to him, agencies such as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and other revenue-generating institutions often deduct operating expenses before remitting funds into the Federation Account.
“Because they double-spend, they deduct, contrary to the Constitution, then they still present a budget to appropriate the very monies they have kept. So we have lost like 200 trillion in the last 10 years.
“And we feel that is going to continue. We are not going to go anywhere,” he said.
He argued that the practice of deducting costs before remittance creates opacity in public finance management and reduces the amount available to government for development projects and infrastructure spending.
The senior advocate maintained that stronger fiscal discipline and improved accountability would enhance investor confidence and reduce the country’s dependence on loans.
While criticising fiscal policy, Agbakoba commended the Central Bank of Nigeria under Governor Olayemi Cardoso, saying exchange rate management had improved compared to previous periods marked by instability and multiple exchange rates.
“Since Cardoso came in, the exchange rate has been fairly stable. He is doing his job. The problem is fiscal policy,” he said.
Agbakoba also called for reforms to Section 162 of the Constitution, which governs the Federation Account, insisting that all revenues due to the federation should be remitted in full before any deductions are made.
“All revenues that belong to the Federation should be paid into the Federation Account in gross, with no deductions, charges, or offsets before payment,” he said.
He added that such reforms could significantly increase government revenue and lower borrowing requirements.
Nigeria has in recent years faced mounting fiscal pressure driven by subsidy payments, debt servicing costs, exchange rate volatility and limited revenue generation. Analysts have repeatedly called for broader tax reforms, improved transparency and increased productivity in key sectors of the economy to reduce the country’s reliance on debt financing.
Looking ahead to the 2027 general elections, Agbakoba said economic management should become a central issue in political campaigns and national debate.
“As the presidential election looms, you can see all the clatter and all the noise, but not a single politician has ever talked about the state of Nigeria’s economy. I think that is not right.
“So in 2027, where our money goes must be on the ballot,” he said.
